AFCON 2027 Group D: only one team joins Kenya

The direct answer: besides Kenya, only the highest-placed team among South Africa, Eritrea and Guinea will advance from Group D of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. Kenya already has a place as a co-host, but it competes normally in the group and its results count in the standings. Points won or lost against the Kenyans can therefore decide who claims the remaining berth.

Why Group D has only one more berth

The qualifiers feature 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four, playing home and away across six matchdays. In groups without a host, the first- and second-placed teams qualify. The exception applies to the groups containing Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, which have already qualified as tournament hosts.

Under the format published by CAF, only the highest-placed team in each co-host's group also earns a place. Finishing in the formal top two is therefore not enough in Group D: South Africa, Eritrea and Guinea must outperform one another.

Kenya has qualified, but its points still count

Automatic qualification does not remove Kenya from the six-match schedule. The Kenyan side can win, draw or lose and directly change the totals of all three contenders.

That is why Guinea vs Kenya matters to South Africa and Eritrea. If Guinea earns points, it will reduce or erase part of the deficit created in the opening round. A defeat would mean losing another opportunity in a race from which only the best non-host team advances. The exact effect will also depend on the confirmed Eritrea vs South Africa result.

The table after Matchday One

South Africa opened at the top with three points after beating Guinea 2–1. Ime Okon scored first, Seydouba Cisse equalized and Samukele Kabini delivered the winner in the 77th minute. It was also Pitso Mosimane's first match since returning to lead Bafana Bafana.

In the other fixture, Nahom Girmai Netabay put Eritrea ahead before Ryan Ogam equalized for Kenya in the 87th minute. Kenya and Eritrea consequently had one point each, while Guinea remained on zero. CAF's match report confirms that initial order.

The significance of Eritrea vs South Africa

The match was scheduled for September 30 at 16:00 GMT at a neutral venue in Cairo. Because the supplied sources do not contain a confirmed final score at publication time, it should not be presented here as completed or covered as a live event.

Based on the position before kickoff, a South African victory would extend its advantage over two direct rivals. Eritrea entered Matchday Two with the opportunity to move above South Africa by winning. A draw would keep Bafana Bafana ahead of Eritrea, while leaving the wider picture dependent on the next match.

Why Guinea vs Kenya completes the picture

CAF scheduled Guinea vs Kenya for October 1 at 16:00 GMT. It completes Group D's second matchday and must be included before drawing conclusions about the updated standings.

Guinea began this stage three points behind South Africa and one behind Eritrea. Kenya, despite not contesting the remaining berth, can still deny a direct contender points. Dates, times and venues may change, so consult the official CAF schedule before the match.

A separate race within the standings

The clearest way to follow the group is to separate two facts: the formal table contains four teams, but the qualification race compares only South Africa, Eritrea and Guinea. Kenya influences that contest without needing to win it.

The 2027 AFCON will take place in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda from June 19 to July 17, 2027. Until then, results against the co-host will continue to carry their full value in deciding which team joins Kenya from Group D.